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CPII Survey March 2017

PRESS RELEASE

31 March 2017

Each month Crockers Property in partnership with independent market research firm Ipsos, survey Auckland property investors for their comments and thoughts on the Auckland property market. The results of the latest CPII survey (Crockers Property Investment Index) are as follows:

  • 56% of investors surveyed believe Auckland house prices will remain unchanged or rise by up to 9.90% over the next 12 months
  • Some 71% of investors surveyed think the lowest mortgage rate available by this time in 2019 will be 80% or higher
  • Interest in Central CBD apartments has fallen back following a peak between January and February. This may be as a result of increased interest in Apartments elsewhere this month

Property investment intent and expectations

This month we asked a range of questions around future housing market expectations.
There is a general consensus among property investors that the mortgage rate will continue to rise. Some 71% believe that the lowest mortgage rate available by this time in 2019 will be 4.80% or higher, while 48% believe that it will be 5.20% or above. A smaller proportion (9%) believes that the mortgage rate will rise to 6.00% or above.

Most investors still remain optimistic toward the Auckland property market. The majority of rental property investors (56%) believe that Auckland house prices will remain unchanged or rise by up to 9.90% over the next 12 months, while 12% of investors believe that prices will rise between 10.0%-14.9%. There is a smaller group of investors who expect Auckland house prices to fall over the next year, 15% expect it to fall by up to 5% while 9% feel prices could fall by more than 5%.

Most investors expect the Government to impose additional measures to slow the housing market over the next year. Interest rate increases are expected by just under half (46%) of investors. While approximately one third of investors expect tighter loan restrictions, debt-to-income restrictions, tighter restrictions on foreign purchases of housing and financial disincentives for foreign buyers (respectively: 36%, 33%, 32% and 30%).

Crockers Property Investment Index

The Auckland Rental Property Performance Index has fallen back following two consecutive months of improvement. Although there has been a very slight rise in those expecting an improved performance, more investors are expecting a decreased performance, leading to a net decrease in the Index.
The Auckland Rental Property Investment Index has continued to improve in March, driven by a decrease in investors planning to reduce their property portfolio over the next year. The proportions planning to increase or decrease their portfolios are now equal.

Investment Likelihood

Interest in Central CBD apartments has fallen back following a peak between January and February. This may be as a result of increased interest in Apartments elsewhere this month. Meanwhile, interest in Other Residential properties has remained stable and interest in Commercial properties has softened this month.

Watch our March 2017 CPII Survey results video

Research Details

This research, undertaken by Ipsos on behalf of Crockers, surveyed members of the Crockers Market Research subscriber’s database during March 2017. Respondents included property owners, residential and commercial landlords, property managers, estate agents and tenants. This is an ongoing series of monthly surveys, delivering a regular barometer of property investors’ confidence in the Auckland market.

For more details, please contact:
Kim Sinclair | Marketing Manager, Crockers Property | kims@crockers.co.nz | 09 623 9515
Jonathan Dodd | Research Director, IPSOS Ltd | jonathan.dodd@ipsos.com | 09 538 0500

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